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PMI of manufacturing industry fell slightly in April, still in expansion range

Experts predict that it will continue the trend of steady progress in the future

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the purchasing manager's index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry in April was 50.1%, down 0.1% from the previous month and flat with the same period of last year. It has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months and the trend is stable. Experts said that the index in April was slightly lower than market expectations, but it was still above the boom and bust line. The manufacturing industry in the second quarter is still likely to continue the steady and progressive trend in the first quarter, and the future economy will show a trend of short-term W-shaped and long-term L-shaped.

Zhao Qinghe, a statistician at the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, analyzed that the manufacturing PMI in April had five major operating characteristics. First, the production of the manufacturing industry maintained a steady growth. Affected by the rebound of investment, the recovery of real estate and the acceleration of infrastructure construction, the production of manufacturing industry expanded continuously. The production index was 52.2%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the first quarter average. Second, market demand continued to rise moderately. Under the influence of stable growth and supply side structural reform policy measures, market demand continued to rise. The index of new orders was 51.0%, the second highest since last year. Third, the prices of raw materials continued to rise. As the market is expected to be better in the near future, the purchase price of raw materials has further rebounded. The purchase price index of main raw materials was 57.6%, a new high in recent two years. Fourth, the consumer goods manufacturing industry maintained steady growth. With the implementation of policies and measures to boost consumption, the pace of consumption upgrading has been accelerated, which has played a positive role in easing the downward pressure on the economy.

Lian Ping, an economist at the Bank of communications, said that although the PMI index of the manufacturing industry in April failed to continue the momentum of further increase in March, it should be understood as a phased adjustment of manufacturing enterprises. In recent years, China's PPI price decline has continued to narrow, the growth rate of fixed asset investment has stabilized and rebounded, and the growth rate of industrial profits above the designated scale has turned positive, which shows that China's economic fundamentals are in the process of improvement. Of course, this process will not be smooth sailing. Since the beginning of this year, the rapid growth of China's monetary policy and credit, the accelerated implementation of more vigorous fiscal policies and supply side structural reform measures, and the obvious recovery of the real estate market in the first and second tier cities have provided a good foundation for the sustained improvement of the economy in the second quarter. The trend of steady progress in the first quarter will not change fundamentally.

Guotai Junan analyst Ren Zeping believes that new orders fell in April, but it was at the second highest level in nearly 18 months, which may be related to credit, investment and centralized order placement in March; the construction industry activity index rebounded sharply, indicating that the investment continued to improve; the land purchase of real estate sales increased significantly, indicating that the real estate investment continued to improve; the inventory index of raw materials and finished products decreased, indicating this wave The recovery of small economic cycle is mainly driven by the steady growth of the government and real estate, and the contribution of enterprises to replenish the Treasury is not large. Therefore, China's small economic cycle rebounds or lasts until the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. It is expected that the economy will show a short-term W-shaped, long-term L-shaped trend.

It is worth noting that Ren Zeping said that although this wave of economic stimulus has a short-term effect, it has a high long-term cost. The resurgence of inefficient production capacity, rising leverage, inflation expectations and soaring house prices have increased the difficulties of the five major tasks of supply side reform.

Zhao Qinghe also said that the downward pressure on China's economy is still large due to the uncertainty of the environment and the instability of the market. In the first quarter, the overall investment improved, but the manufacturing investment still fell, which will affect the further recovery of manufacturing production. The new export order index and import index of the manufacturing industry both fell down, and the import index fell back to the contraction range again, indicating that the import and export of the manufacturing industry is still facing great difficulties. The employment index dropped slightly by 0.3 percentage points below the critical point, indicating that the employment pressure has increased.

In addition, China's non manufacturing business activity index was 53.5% in April, down 0.3% from the previous month, slightly higher than the same period last year, and continued to be in the expansion range. Zhao Qinghe said that this shows that China's non manufacturing industry continues to maintain the growth trend, but the growth rate is slightly slowed down.

Lian Ping said that as the central government promotes more active fiscal policies and the driving force of the manufacturing industry, the non manufacturing industry is still expected to achieve steady progress. However, attention should be paid to the expected continuous decline of service industry activities. Measures such as tax reduction, simplification of approval process and strengthening of financing facilities should be taken to accelerate the development of the service industry. It is expected that in the first half of this year, the PMI of non manufacturing industry is expected to remain at the level of 3-4 percentage points higher than the boom and bust line.